Last year surprised us all, and it wasn’t a pleasant surprise. We had to revise our plans and change our everyday life. The year 2020 became synonymous with the crisis and the fight against the pandemic. It was a difficult time for governments, for citizens, but above all for entrepreneurs. Most of us are very happy to say goodbye to 2020. We will welcome the New Year with a little bit of fear but also with a great deal of hope. What will 2021 be like? What awaits us in the coming year? Let’s see what the experts say
The uncertain tomorrow
In October’s report on the economic situation of enterprises during the pandemic, the Economic Situation Monitoring Centre emphasized that over 80% of entrepreneurs fear the long-term effects of the crisis. The main source of their concern is, of course, the potential next wave of the coronavirus and the prolonged economic lockdown. The pandemic situation caused a significant deterioration in the financial liquidity of many companies. The vast majority of entrepreneurs assess the overall condition of their companies as worse than before the Covid-19 crisis. The average rating of the respondents is 4.4 (on a scale from 0 to 10), as many as 10% of the participants assessed the situation of their companies as very bad (0 points). Moreover, 22% of entrepreneurs declare that they are able to maintain liquidity for no longer than a month. Most of the participants indicate that the reason for the difficult financial situation of their companies is the decrease in demand for products or services they offer (60%) and administrative restrictions introduced in the fight against the pandemic (50%). In the perspective of 2021, the entrepreneurs expect a further decline in demand for their products, lower revenues, and, consequently, the need for layoffs. The risk of tax increase is also one of the biggest matters of concern for Polish entrepreneurs.
Are we starting to turn the corner?
Despite the concerns and the undeniable economic crisis, business forecasts for 2021 allow us to look towards the future with optimism. Analysts’ projection assumes a “relatively mild decline in GDP” in Poland. The S&P Global Rating report has revised the GDP forecast for Poland and other European countries, but only in the case of Poland, the new predictions turned out to be favourable. Contrary to initial forecasts assuming a decline in GDP by 3.4% Poland recorded a negative GDP growth of 3%. According to the predictions of economists, in 2021 economic growth can be expected to rebound by 3.8%, and in the following year by as much as 4.2%.
The Secretary-General of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) Angel Gurría recently emphasized that Poland has a chance to recover from the COVID-19 crisis with less damage than other countries. The OECD’s report, Economic Survey Poland, clearly indicates that export was the engine of the Polish economy in 2020 and it may also be an important factor contributing to the gradual recovery from the crisis in the upcoming years.
The SME sector, despite very unfavourable economic conditions, has recorded many successes in international cooperation, among others through the involvement of Polish entrepreneurs in international supply chains on the global markets, in particular in the IT sector. Companies from the BSS and BPO/SSC sectors are also growing in strength. They respond to the needs related to the digitization process accelerated by the lockdown and the growing popularity of the remote work model. According to experts, the BSS sector can significantly contribute to the recovery of the Polish economy. Due to the growing demand, we can expect that global outsourcing companies will be looking for new, safe locations. Polish regions, Pomerania in particular, is one of the most attractive locations for companies operating in the modern business services sector.
Pomeranian business in 2021
According to the report created on behalf of the Pomeranian Development Fund and based on a survey conducted in July 2020, local companies did relatively well after the spring lockdown of the economy. Representatives of Pomeranian businesses participating in the survey assessed the condition of their enterprises as moderately good. The average assessment of 5.66 points on a scale of 0-10 is a good result considering the circumstances. Obviously, the number was significantly lower than the results from previous years. Even in January 2020, Pomeranian entrepreneurs assessed the condition of their companies at an average of 7.57 points. However there is no data taking into account the effects of the second wave of the pandemic and the restrictions that once again affected many sectors of the economy, but in Pomerania, no radical economic slump has been noticed. Most business owners are optimistic about the future. Obviously, there is a great deal of uncertainty and unavoidable investment slowdown, as well as the urgent need to adapt to the new realities. The pandemic has forced changes in the conduct of many businesses. The necessity to introduce changes was declared by as many as ¾ of the surveyed entrepreneurs. Most often, the changes concerned the methods of reaching the customer (30%) and the need to introduce new or adapt existing products or services (27%). In the manufacturing industry, over 40% of companies declared the need to look for new suppliers.
The report of the Pomeranian Development Fund gives us hope that the economic rebound of Pomerania in 2021 will be noticeable and much faster than in other regions of the country and the world. The dynamic development of the BSS sector is particularly encouraging. The latest statistics show 140 specialized business centres operating in our region and nearly 30 thousand specialists employed in the sector. Tri-City and Pomerania, in general, is also one of the most important centres of IT services. The digitization of services, brought forward by the pandemic, made the IT sector one of the most important areas of the economy. According to the data of the European Job Mobility Portal, as many as 5648 enterprises from the ICT sector currently operate in Pomerania. All forecasts and predictions indicate that these sectors will continue to develop dynamically in the coming years.
The fast development of the two sectors of key importance for the region, despite the ongoing crisis, allows us to believe in the optimistic forecasts for 2021. Of course, it is impossible to completely erase the effects of the pandemic crisis in such a short time. Nevertheless, most of the forecasts are promising both for Pomerania and for Poland, which lets us hope for a fast return of dynamic economic growth from before Covid-19.
